Mu Hat Mu Hat Capital Management

Fundamental equity investing, built for the years that decide it.

We invest for long-term growth, with a discipline built around the years that decide it. Most markets are calm, and we compound through them. For the rare hard year, we prepare first, holding every estimate to how it behaves under stress rather than how it looks in quiet weather. The result is capital managed with the same steady judgment in every kind of market.

How Mu Hat Capital Management thinks

Three plain ideas, held in order.

One

What we build around

Not the average year. The breaking year. We design the portfolio against the moment its assumptions stop holding, because that is the moment that decides whether capital survives to compound.

Two

Why averages mislead

An average weights a calm decade and a single crash the same. The fewer years behind it, the more one bad year can flatter or wreck the picture. A reassuring number can hide a fragile one.

Three

How we test for the worst day

We hold every estimate to how it behaves when markets turn, not to how neat it looks in a quiet sample. The estimates we keep are the ones that stay honest under stress.

An estimate you trust in calm weather is worth little. The estimate worth holding is the one that is still standing when the weather turns.
From a memo by Joshua Lawson, Chief Investment Officer
Factor rotation

Factor Leadership is Unpredictable and Rotational

Factor leadership · U.S. equity style factors · 2011 to 2024. Figure 02
▲ Best performer
20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
BestQSCSCMMSCMMQMQVQM
2ndMEWEWLCQVQQLCQVSCLCLC
3rdLCLCMEWLCEWLCLCEWLCLCMSCQ
4thVMQVVLCEWVMSCEWEWEWV
5thEWVVQEWQSCEWSCEWSCLCVEW
WorstSCQLCSCSCMVSCVVMQMSC
▼ Worst performer
Q · QualityM · MomentumLC · Large CapV · ValueEW · Equal WeightSC · Small Cap

The chaotic pattern of colors demonstrates the challenge of trying to time factors. The top-performing factor changes almost every year, requiring a systematic, adaptive approach rather than static allocation.

Mu Hat

A conversation, then the numbers.

Mu Hat advises a private partnership offered only to accredited investors. There is a verification step before any fund material is shared. We are glad to begin a conversation first.

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